Canadian history has been made and future references for precedence set. The governor general has suspended parliament based on the request of a sitting prime minister.

This decision will undoubtedly fire the opposition in whichever form they take, coalition or individual parties, as they challenge Stephen Harper and his Conservatives on seemingly undemocratic and unfair reply to the situation. The simple fact of the matter is everything that has happened has been well within the rules of the parliamentary system we live under.

The fact that should upset Canadians most on each side of the partisan line is that each party has done what they did with only their own party’s best interest in mind. The interest of Canada is the furthest thing from the mind of anyone in this current prorogued parliament.

The Prime Minister will face the Governor General to realize his government’s future.

They both have options in the situation and need to leave emotion at the doorstep of 1 Sussex Drive. The GG is expected to either impose the coalition or call an election, she has a quiet third choice that the networks, especially the CBC, do not report. She can simply tell the PM to return to the house and revise the confidence motion for re-reading in the house.This option provides a calmer and less-expensive way to return the house to a functioning level again, leaving in tact the government that was just elected by Canadians 6-weeks ago.

Because the GG takes a great deal of creedence in the Prime Minister’s advice there is a fourth and very dangerous option for the current government. They could suggest a prorogue of the house (time out) in order to pass the expected confidence vote on Monday and return to the house on a timeline of their choosing. The problem and potential threat to them should they choose this option is the view from the rest of the nation. Simply packing up your toys and refusing to play is the worst thing Harper could suggest at this point. He and the party are currently enjoying a heightened level of support through empathy because of the potential slide into power by one of the least popular Liberal leaders in Canadian history (although very legal in our system of government). Just as the coalition is taking every possible opportunity at the risk of everything Canadians have valued in the past, Harper risks the support that came from the opposition to the coalition’s actions if he prorogues parliament.

Make no mistake about this political issue in the nation, although legal and although it stemmed from a mistake made by the PM it risks Canadian principles in every form. Stay tuned.

The final results of the 2008 Federal Election are as follows:

• Conservatives – 143 Seats
• Liberals – 78 Seats
• Bloc – 48 Seats
• NDP – 37 Seats
• Green Party – 0 Seats

It’s a larger minority but a minority by any other name is still the same. Each party leader made their reality acceptance speech as they swallowed the votes given to the them. They all made the promise to work together in parliament and to be more cordial towards one and other – good intentions, for now. The leaders speeches were not indicative of any set issue, aside from Haprer’s focus on the economy – a lesson learned this election for him. The other notable speech performance was Dion’s reaction to CTV placing a camera in his face and asking if he would tell them how he felt – he angryily denied them the answer saying that “the last people I want to speak with is CTV” (obviously reacting to the start stop interview they chose to air).

The parties to watch in this 40th parliament are the Liberals, NDP and Green.  This is because the Liberals will want a new leader as soon as the finances are present to do so and until that time they will still want to be seen as an active – important party in the house. They will achieve (or try) this by immediately talking to the other parties listed to find common ground to unite on and display a hard voice against Tory policy. The reason we threw Elizabeth May in there was because of her party’s results tonight. She has a financial debt to repay (as a party) but aside from that, she has no responsibility as a federal party. that means she will be wooed by the Liberals as a promised minister in a future Liberal government or possibly a senator as mentioned on Bourque.com days ago.

Has all that much changed?
Not really, the discourse of the house will decide just how much things have changed and we predict that the Harper Conservatives will play even more chicken with the house as they try to pass more bills in the face of the opposition. Other than those points, there is another Trudeau in the house, we’re down one Conservative-Liberal loudmouth and the Bloc prevented a western Prime Minister a majority. Things are pretty much the same as they always have been in our nation, strong and free (Steve, you can totally ditch the sweaters now).

In a week where Conservatives have taken a beating in the media on the economic crisis facing the world, a World Economic Foundation report puts Canadian Banks at the top of the class.The Prime Minister’s plan of not making knee-jerk promises, especially economic ones during an election (let alone during a financial meltdown)  have proven well served. A perspective of this sort is hard to appreciate as you look at statements showing negative totals, but it is providing Canadians with sound, sage advice. Why would you try to fix a problem that hasn’t occurred yet? The preventative replacement of a home furnace without any measurable issue is not something homeowners plan for, so why should we have a bailout plan for financial institutions when it isn’t an issue?Now to be fair there is something to be said for being prepared for a situation approaching on the horizon. We haven’t heard too much about that from any other party, Tories included – which would most likely provide a level of security (even a small one) to those who are losing money in the stock market plunge.The wonk supports the Conservative position on providing plans for problems, not plans for speculation because in comparison to the other parties it seems the most logical. The other party perspectives are:

• Liberals – Will announce a financial plan after 30 days of taking office
• NDP – Take away $50 billion from corporate tax cutting and prop up the economy using that money
• Green – Have been very quiet during this issue, anyone heard anything that the wonk can’t find?

The full report on Canadian Banks is available here.

Whether you’re selling stocks or flushing the toilet, you can’t get the economy off your mind.

And neither can the leaders in the Canadian Election race, the economy has dominated more than any other issue this election. Recently it was a sparring session between Harper and Dion after Harper accused the Liberal leader of hoping for a recession. We’re still translating Dion’s response, but we don’t believe he agreed with the statement. The debates proved to provide much lip flapping time to each of the leaders as well, here’s a wonk’s take on the strengths and areas of improvement for each.

The Conservatives – Stephen Harper
Harper should receive a nod from the academy for the longest slide into some bad news. For some time when asked about the economy and possible recession he’s eased from ‘it’s okay’ to ‘we have a sound economy’ to ‘we are not an island’. Perhaps he’s a fan of the sandwich approach, placing the bad in between two good points – but what are the good points? What Harper needs to do to better manage the message on economy:

• Use the real numbers in the situation – don’t round, or speak in percentages – straight talk results in straight answers without the sugar coating. Harper should be in front of the cameras with his mini-Irish sidekick along side reminding voters of actual financial results that they have provided Canadians in the past two years. Tax savings accounts, GST reductions, etc, etc.
• Be clear on the economics of business – Layton talks the talk on billions of corporate tax cuts but where’s the proof of that, speak to that issue and bury on the side of the NDP.
• Better highlight the significant differences (and similarities) between Canada and the US – The fear mongering from the other parties is coming from the Bushisms of the US comparisons, trump their arguments with facts about how we are really like the US and how we are not. Don’t beat around the Bush (pun) with the affects of the economic crisis in the states, we as Canadians will feel it, but how are we prepared to feel it and deal with it in the end.

The Liberals – Stephane Dion
Stephane Dion has obviously been taken to the woodshed by Jean or Paul because during the debates he starred right into the camera and dropped the Canada phrase numerous times as he talked about everything including the economy. On the economy he didn’t promise anything and everything at the same time. The wonks here think the Grits need to pull their socks up on the following economic issues:

• Commit funding to only certain issues – by promising spending on everything that is asked of you, the party loses creditability to those who are undecided. It also makes you appear more detail oriented and well-thought when you pick and choose.
• Talk about the Liberals history of deficit elimination – Why do we have surpluses, the Liberals are the reason for that. Speak to that point more and frame it in the context of a tanking economy and the built in ability to conserve (pun) and manage the money based on a proven track record.
• Hit back on economic ‘green’ issues – You will be hitting the Tories and the Green party with one statement about the Liberals ability to integrate environment and economy. The argument for blending the two works because you worst enemies for each are strong only in one of the two areas.

The NDP – Jack Layton
Jack Layton needs to wake up and react more like a person than a budding comic. He had some very hard points in the debates on the issue but they did not bake as they should have and Harper ended up shrugging them off with ease. Wonk says work these economic points to do better:

• You’re not on Seinfeld – and Thomas Mulclair is not Kramer. When you deliver a good zinger don’t stare at the target and wait for the applause machine to kick in. So many of the points in the debate were great but delivered with such a smug tone and a crooked smile they fall flat. Keep the one liners and zingers (read: sweaters), but lose the attitude (sorry – that was more on personal development rather than economic development)
• Taxes are the governments only source of income – if you cut too many taxes then you run out of money. Nuff said?
• Business make money – Most business is in business to produce a gross profit, which is not evil. Oh, and the above point has an application with this one – when you shift taxes from personal to business too much business cannot afford to keep people employed. I know this is really hard to understand, but it’s a must before you assume the opposition position. Maybe we could get some Muppets in and explain Sesame Street style.

The Greens - Elizabeth May
All Liz May jokes are off the table. She ran a good race in the debates and proved that she is more than just a one-trick pony. Wonk’s advice for Ms. May:

• Pick apart Conservative economic decisions made lately – by showing that the Green Party can dive in and analyze a policy, producing their own results is a true measure of the party (really – what you did during the debates, just expand)
• Argue reality to the NDP – make the Greens the left-realist vote choice in the election. Jack is straying too far from the real situation and the opportunity is yours to take over that position.
• Point out the Liberals history on the economy – and frame it in the context of green initiatives, speaking to Liberal voters who are swaying your way on the environment. The Grits had years to fortify the environment / economy in Canada and here we are looking over the edge at an abyss.

Next topic in the series, sweaters. That one was for you Jack.

Number four in the list of five issues that are likely to dominate the Canadian election is leadership. The leadership of the parties strangely plays a large role in how we as Canadians vote – even though we are not able to all vote for a Prime Minister directly and rather the party.

We and the political parties place an undue amount of attention of the current leader of the party and their personal viewpoints than we do issues and promises made both by the party and the individual for that matter. So in keeping with the seemingly Canadian style of political attention misdirection, the wonk looks at the four leaders (four was all for you Liz).

Stephen ‘Ironman’ Harper
Although he has a six-inch thick exterior and most likely still falls asleep with a copy of the policy of the day in his hands, Steve has shown us middle class folks that he too sips his Tim’s from the same side of the cup. He has made an effort to arrange for funeral plans for the Liberal’s imposed image of a cold and hard person, by performing random acts of humanism, like playing the piano and describing that he is a lot like a fruit to a gaggle of salivating reports. His leadership will be defined by his ability to:

• Control party message – The Conservative caucus is a lot like those folks in the Hills Have Eyes movies, there can be much lurking at times and when everyone seems to thin it’s all good – BAM – they jump out and promptly shove their foot the mouth.
• Relate and relay important grass-roots issues to the voting public – For the most part he does this well, the GST reductions have resonated as have his 5 priorities strategy previously.
• Convince Canadians that his party (and himself) are capable of being responsible with a majority – You listening Quebec?

The Ironman tag was thrown in there because us at the wonk believe that underneath his thick exterior lies the personality and humour of someone like Tony Stark. PMSH would be our first choice to knock back some beers as we target shoot old pictures of Trudeau.

Stephane ‘ESL’ Dion
Stephane Dion is a nice guy. He’s the kind of nice you feel when walking through an animal shelter and the dog that keeps staring at you blankly is also the one that due to be put down shortly. We know how the Conservatives feel about Dion, but we also think the Canadian public really feels for him. This is truly a wonk-style election with Harper and Dion being pited head on against each other, and we think that Dion has a couple extra wonk points that Harper doesn’t have. But, that said – is Dion best left to the backrooms? Maybe, maybe not- here’s what we think will define his ability to lead the natural party of Canada:

• Taking Tom Petty’s advice – Dion cannot afford to back down again. He has shown Canadians all year that he is prepared to stand up for them only when the Liberal party is ready for an election. He has had his party abstain from House votes and changed directions more times than Myron Thompson changes livers. He needs to find the confidence issue that sides him with the Liberals and lay down in front of the Conservative steam train in order to show that he can make confident decisions.
• Carbon Tax (shhhh!) – The green shift is a great idea, but it’s not a lead platform. The idea that he spent a week a couple months back selling carbon tax to the general (driving) public is sitr crazy. Selling encyclopedias door to door in silicon valley would have been a more reasonable task. He has quieted up on the carbon tax since the writ dropped, but the public (read: transportation companies) remember well – especially in BC.
• Controlling the monster IggyRae – Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae wander around Dion like distance nephews at a rich aunt’s will reading. They both know what they want, Dion knows what they want, even the Canadian public knows what they want. They want to be the next PM as head of the Liberal party. Iggy and Rae are both smart enough politicians to know that if they stay on party lines and smile on the left and right of the temp filling the leader’s job, they will only have to worry about each other (sorry Martha).

Jack ‘Frat House’ Layton
Smoking pot? Nude candidates? Dropping acid and filming it? Looks like the Green party reached out to it’s membership and encouraged some free samples to select NDP members. This was the election of opportunity for the NDP – a weakened Liberal-party, scary economy on the horizon and plugs pulled on previous social programs that could start up again with the signing of a cheque. Jack, what happened? Instead for every Conservative apology we heard over the last week, we heard the second story as “NDP candidate drops out due to crazy-ass behaviour”. Here’s what handsome Jack’s defining issues are;

• Keep it together, KIT, KIT, KIT – The party is actually looking like a party lately. Jack needs to tighten the ropes and reel in the members and candidates – and maybe, just a suggestion piss testing.
• Go social – Quit talking about economic issues, the NDP is a social party (that sounds funny) and should be talking about social issues and how they envision solutions to those issues. Stay on daycare, stay on Aboriginals, stay on the social track.
• Resend your message – You are not the next prime minister. But you are a viable alternative the Liberal party. Use short, calm and pointed messages to delivery what you are saying. Seeming more reasonable takes away all moonbat arguments.

Elizabeth ‘Just Happy To Be Here’ May
Why wouldn’t she be happy? Already with one MP recorded in the House and well on her way to having 8-10 times that she has reason to always be smiling. Although the Greens seem to be a one issue party they are working on getting the message across that they have other, non-composting related ideas for the country. Liz (if I may call you that) has taken a lesson from Dion and stopped soapboxing carbon taxes even if that is in the party’s platform. Here’s Liz’s leadership issues:

• Choice – Not pro-choice, choice. She needs to have a Green candidiate in every riding possible to maximize her opportunity in this unique election. We can think of at least 5 ridings that will swing to her if she represents.
• Define other issues – From the party’s perspective, start detailing what the Green party will provide (other than environmental) for the nation. Even shadow speaking at this point would be beneficial – comment on the other leader announcements and show Canadians the difference of the party.
• Focus on the east coast – The left coast will be easy, the right, not so much. Ms. May needs to have to sets of speaking points that are clear and defined – and she needs to be able to rattle them off llike a robot at the drop of a GPS, depending on where she is in the country.

You thinking we forgot someone? No, we didn’t forget – by Quebec may have. Watch the Canadian Federal Election on October 14 and you’ll see.

The third issue that we will go into depth on will be the economy (queue disater music, crowds screaming and random people pointing to the sky).

Famed NDP member of parliament Thomas Mulcair was in search of his temper this week after a minute long fracas in the house. Mulcair’s temper went AWOL after some heckling from the Tory side, specifically from Gerard Keddy.

Mulcair was in the middle of explaining why a deportation order was in need of suspension when he flicked off like a light switch at the peanut gallery down the rows. “Climbing over rows of chairs”, and “spitting” almost as though Mulcair was going to “attack” said Keddy. Cooler minds prevailed (thankfully, we think) and not further incidents were recorded.

The famed part of Mulcair’s career comes from the fact that he is the NDP member in the once Liberal kingdom of Outrement. Made a co-Deputy leader of the NDP (move over Libby Davis) and used as a door-jam for any chance of NDP expansion in the province of Quebec, much has fallen on the shoulders of the newbie member and it’s starting to show.

While we believe that his temper was eventually found, we are looking forward to more desk and chair climbing from the member, a socialist G.I. Joe is a rarity anywhere, let alone Ottawa. The Wonk’s only advice, stay away from John Baird, you wouldn’t like him when he’s angry.

Breaking stories are for news junkies. Solid strategic action based on a event or situation is the wonk’s natural habitat.

Now that the Krista Erickson writes off-topic questions delivered by Liberal MP to former Conservative Prime Minister situation has tapered off, we here at the wonk thought it would be of community service value to offer the fallen CBC reporter some career rejuvenating strategies.

1. Political Career – Find a party friendly constituency (preferably NDP) and put forth your name as a candidate in the next federal election. Use the CBC situation as a opportunity to reflect on the status of women in the journalistic field and champion the more global women’s rights to equality to all fields of employment. Campaign yourself to a $150,000 a year job on Parliament Hill and take every opportunity to join committees that Pablo Rodriguez is also a member of, just to make him uncomfortable.
2. Pundit Career - Apply to the Green party as a writer/strategist before the next election. Appear in as many photo opportunities with Elizabeth May and have as many realistic challenges put forth by the party leader (with you as the public source) as possible. Take the credit for any of the party gains (those are implied) in the next election as the brains behind the strategy and spoken words. Distill any job offers after that (stay clear of the NDP in this case), take the new job or raise, put one to two more years in and write a book on the realism of Canadian politics. Again, distill all national newspaper columnist jobs and go forth, eventually ending up on the CBC’s At Issue panel taking Chantal Hebert’s seat.
3. Lobbyist Career – Take the short term knowledge you have of the players on parliament hill (while they are still in place) and solicit to any number of lobbying firms. Negotiate a $300-400K a year job, leave the public eye forever and work the shadows in the halls of the house. Note that this option can also be coupled as an after-step with options one or two.
4. Internal CBC Conquerer Career – Take the transfer to Toronto as an opportunity as opposed to a punishment. Have coffee with Wendy Mensley as much as possible and ask as many questions as you can. Come up with a fringe television show idea (fitted to the CBC) and then move your allince away from Wendy towards Peter Mansbridge (if you can stomach this). Talk about the television show idea as much as possible (or until he can’t take it any longer) to him. Launch the show with a level of success not seen since Strombo boarded the ship and begin negotiations with NBC as permanent host of Deal or No Deal: Canadian Edition. Wait for the show to fail terrifically and come back to the CBC with an (increased) implied amount of due respect. Start another fringe television show and wait for the call to become the next Governor General of Canada.
5. CTV Chief Middle-East Correspondent Career – Lay low for about six-months. Digest all you can about the middle east from a very high level perspective. Fly over to Dubai (make this your base for safety reasons) and begin doing hired-correspondent gigs for any network that will have you. Get yourself in the most dangerous of situations at every available chance while filing reports. Make certain that Peter MacKay’s girlfriend (at the time of this writing), Jana Juginovic (the Director of News Programming) get a copy of each report filed. Allow some time for the offer and make sure to do the emotional side of the story once in a while. We should note that this is the most risk in any of the career options we’ve outlined and that should be taken into consideration when discussion salary expectations.

In the end we know Pablo Rodriguez should confess his role in the delivery of the questions that Krista Erickson has taken the wrap for, but we aren’t holding our breath. We hope to see Krista in one of the careers mentioned above or a new selection of her own soon and off the pages of Frank even sooner.

Good luck Krista.

Confidence motions always stir the chance of an election. That chance is always a bit more magnified in a minority government as well. Welcome to the next two or three weeks of political jib-jab in the Canadian media.

We have both elements in place for some prime election speculation. The current minority has a budget (read: confidence motion) right around the corner. Party administration has gone into full on election mode, striking up more and new polling to be done and getting MPs in the mindset of shaking hands and taking names.

The interesting part of this situation is that we are about to decide, as a nation, if the country’s representatives have the confidence required to sustain parliament and a big part of that decision comes from a very narrowly focused group, the Bloc Québécois.

Now don’t get us wrong, we think that Gilles Duceppe has had some of the more memorable moments in interviews and on the floor of the house. He says what he thinks for the most part and other than a federal to provincial leap that failed last year, he has lived the good political life. What we find strange here is that the party with one province only in mind can lead the charge taking the nation to the polls.

Vote rich Quebec will be the focus of the next election. It holds the future for not only the Bloc Québécois, but the measurement of the Conservative’s storied progress in the province. These two factors will be pitted against each other consistently going back and forth. In the last election the Conservative lead a stunning victory over the Bloc (and Liberals), however the Bloc have since replaced the fire-tipped previous provincial leader André Boisclair and soared up more support since the whipping they took.

The barometer of the nation is clearly Quebec for the start and the end of any election. Some say a better barometer is one who has a 24/7 watch on the first barometer. Chantal Hebert is famous for her contributions to the CBC’s At Issue and as an expert on the ‘feelings’ of Quebec. Her perspective on a particular political party enjoying success in Quebec is that the federal Conservatives are closely aligned with the ADQ. And the ADQ has suffered some substantial losses in the last while, while allowing the PQ (or Bloc equivalent) to gather momentum. The boils down to a gain from the Bloc in the next election in Quebec.

Not all agree with her forecasts however. Jack Layton’s NDP were victorious in Outremont, the fabled Liberal riding the province in a by-election in 2007. Ask Jack and he’ll tell you, he’s the king of Kensington, if Kensington is somewhere in Quebec.

All this and still no solid picture has been painted here. That’s because Quebec is a fluid factor in any election calculations. Wind factor and wine availability play large rolls too. Each leader has a strategy to align themselves and the promise with Quebec, but even with all that strategy at $225 dollars an hour, the liquid opinion of the distinct province is a craps shoot.

In the end the party that takes Quebec, will be the real winner of the next election if not in seats, in momentum.