Here’s a secret at The Political Wonk, when we have heard what there is to hear about stories in the media, our eyes glaze over. And the next thing you know we are playing paper doll dress up in Photoshop with an elected leader.

That time of eye glazing has come and gone, and, well, someone got dressed up because in the middle of our meditation we realized that Stephane Dion is not only holding back a country from a federal election, but he’s holding back a wonk’s required once-a-year migration to Ottawa for all things policy and procedure.

The federal Liberals have abstained from more than their share of confidence matters now but not before turning the verbal volume to 11 on the dial. It seems that either Dion doesn’t have the gut for the push or maybe it’s the fact that Harper can play him like four-armed drummer, beating out whatever result he wants. Hold on a second though, Harper hasn’t exactly been the best of the best when it comes to strategy lately (read: Chuck Cadman) seeming to fall and expose his weakness to Dion almost bi-weekly. Dion, get the guts.

The appeal to Stephane Dion here is to decide. Decide whether or not your team can take the Harperites down at the polls. Pull the trigger, any trigger, election or prop-up, any one will do, but please decide. The annual wonk migration is approaching, where a weeks worth of policy discussion, question period and senate debate watching occurs. Without a definate decision the migrating wonks will be displaced and potentially pay too much for a plane ticket that was just on sale.

So, Stephane for the sake of the nation and the wonk migration, please decide. Are you an opposition or not?

Confidence motions always stir the chance of an election. That chance is always a bit more magnified in a minority government as well. Welcome to the next two or three weeks of political jib-jab in the Canadian media.

We have both elements in place for some prime election speculation. The current minority has a budget (read: confidence motion) right around the corner. Party administration has gone into full on election mode, striking up more and new polling to be done and getting MPs in the mindset of shaking hands and taking names.

The interesting part of this situation is that we are about to decide, as a nation, if the country’s representatives have the confidence required to sustain parliament and a big part of that decision comes from a very narrowly focused group, the Bloc Québécois.

Now don’t get us wrong, we think that Gilles Duceppe has had some of the more memorable moments in interviews and on the floor of the house. He says what he thinks for the most part and other than a federal to provincial leap that failed last year, he has lived the good political life. What we find strange here is that the party with one province only in mind can lead the charge taking the nation to the polls.

Vote rich Quebec will be the focus of the next election. It holds the future for not only the Bloc Québécois, but the measurement of the Conservative’s storied progress in the province. These two factors will be pitted against each other consistently going back and forth. In the last election the Conservative lead a stunning victory over the Bloc (and Liberals), however the Bloc have since replaced the fire-tipped previous provincial leader André Boisclair and soared up more support since the whipping they took.

The barometer of the nation is clearly Quebec for the start and the end of any election. Some say a better barometer is one who has a 24/7 watch on the first barometer. Chantal Hebert is famous for her contributions to the CBC’s At Issue and as an expert on the ‘feelings’ of Quebec. Her perspective on a particular political party enjoying success in Quebec is that the federal Conservatives are closely aligned with the ADQ. And the ADQ has suffered some substantial losses in the last while, while allowing the PQ (or Bloc equivalent) to gather momentum. The boils down to a gain from the Bloc in the next election in Quebec.

Not all agree with her forecasts however. Jack Layton’s NDP were victorious in Outremont, the fabled Liberal riding the province in a by-election in 2007. Ask Jack and he’ll tell you, he’s the king of Kensington, if Kensington is somewhere in Quebec.

All this and still no solid picture has been painted here. That’s because Quebec is a fluid factor in any election calculations. Wind factor and wine availability play large rolls too. Each leader has a strategy to align themselves and the promise with Quebec, but even with all that strategy at $225 dollars an hour, the liquid opinion of the distinct province is a craps shoot.

In the end the party that takes Quebec, will be the real winner of the next election if not in seats, in momentum.