The Prime Minister will face the Governor General to realize his government’s future.

They both have options in the situation and need to leave emotion at the doorstep of 1 Sussex Drive. The GG is expected to either impose the coalition or call an election, she has a quiet third choice that the networks, especially the CBC, do not report. She can simply tell the PM to return to the house and revise the confidence motion for re-reading in the house.This option provides a calmer and less-expensive way to return the house to a functioning level again, leaving in tact the government that was just elected by Canadians 6-weeks ago.

Because the GG takes a great deal of creedence in the Prime Minister’s advice there is a fourth and very dangerous option for the current government. They could suggest a prorogue of the house (time out) in order to pass the expected confidence vote on Monday and return to the house on a timeline of their choosing. The problem and potential threat to them should they choose this option is the view from the rest of the nation. Simply packing up your toys and refusing to play is the worst thing Harper could suggest at this point. He and the party are currently enjoying a heightened level of support through empathy because of the potential slide into power by one of the least popular Liberal leaders in Canadian history (although very legal in our system of government). Just as the coalition is taking every possible opportunity at the risk of everything Canadians have valued in the past, Harper risks the support that came from the opposition to the coalition’s actions if he prorogues parliament.

Make no mistake about this political issue in the nation, although legal and although it stemmed from a mistake made by the PM it risks Canadian principles in every form. Stay tuned.

The final results of the 2008 Federal Election are as follows:

• Conservatives – 143 Seats
• Liberals – 78 Seats
• Bloc – 48 Seats
• NDP – 37 Seats
• Green Party – 0 Seats

It’s a larger minority but a minority by any other name is still the same. Each party leader made their reality acceptance speech as they swallowed the votes given to the them. They all made the promise to work together in parliament and to be more cordial towards one and other – good intentions, for now. The leaders speeches were not indicative of any set issue, aside from Haprer’s focus on the economy – a lesson learned this election for him. The other notable speech performance was Dion’s reaction to CTV placing a camera in his face and asking if he would tell them how he felt – he angryily denied them the answer saying that “the last people I want to speak with is CTV” (obviously reacting to the start stop interview they chose to air).

The parties to watch in this 40th parliament are the Liberals, NDP and Green.  This is because the Liberals will want a new leader as soon as the finances are present to do so and until that time they will still want to be seen as an active – important party in the house. They will achieve (or try) this by immediately talking to the other parties listed to find common ground to unite on and display a hard voice against Tory policy. The reason we threw Elizabeth May in there was because of her party’s results tonight. She has a financial debt to repay (as a party) but aside from that, she has no responsibility as a federal party. that means she will be wooed by the Liberals as a promised minister in a future Liberal government or possibly a senator as mentioned on Bourque.com days ago.

Has all that much changed?
Not really, the discourse of the house will decide just how much things have changed and we predict that the Harper Conservatives will play even more chicken with the house as they try to pass more bills in the face of the opposition. Other than those points, there is another Trudeau in the house, we’re down one Conservative-Liberal loudmouth and the Bloc prevented a western Prime Minister a majority. Things are pretty much the same as they always have been in our nation, strong and free (Steve, you can totally ditch the sweaters now).

Confidence motions always stir the chance of an election. That chance is always a bit more magnified in a minority government as well. Welcome to the next two or three weeks of political jib-jab in the Canadian media.

We have both elements in place for some prime election speculation. The current minority has a budget (read: confidence motion) right around the corner. Party administration has gone into full on election mode, striking up more and new polling to be done and getting MPs in the mindset of shaking hands and taking names.

The interesting part of this situation is that we are about to decide, as a nation, if the country’s representatives have the confidence required to sustain parliament and a big part of that decision comes from a very narrowly focused group, the Bloc Québécois.

Now don’t get us wrong, we think that Gilles Duceppe has had some of the more memorable moments in interviews and on the floor of the house. He says what he thinks for the most part and other than a federal to provincial leap that failed last year, he has lived the good political life. What we find strange here is that the party with one province only in mind can lead the charge taking the nation to the polls.

Vote rich Quebec will be the focus of the next election. It holds the future for not only the Bloc Québécois, but the measurement of the Conservative’s storied progress in the province. These two factors will be pitted against each other consistently going back and forth. In the last election the Conservative lead a stunning victory over the Bloc (and Liberals), however the Bloc have since replaced the fire-tipped previous provincial leader André Boisclair and soared up more support since the whipping they took.

The barometer of the nation is clearly Quebec for the start and the end of any election. Some say a better barometer is one who has a 24/7 watch on the first barometer. Chantal Hebert is famous for her contributions to the CBC’s At Issue and as an expert on the ‘feelings’ of Quebec. Her perspective on a particular political party enjoying success in Quebec is that the federal Conservatives are closely aligned with the ADQ. And the ADQ has suffered some substantial losses in the last while, while allowing the PQ (or Bloc equivalent) to gather momentum. The boils down to a gain from the Bloc in the next election in Quebec.

Not all agree with her forecasts however. Jack Layton’s NDP were victorious in Outremont, the fabled Liberal riding the province in a by-election in 2007. Ask Jack and he’ll tell you, he’s the king of Kensington, if Kensington is somewhere in Quebec.

All this and still no solid picture has been painted here. That’s because Quebec is a fluid factor in any election calculations. Wind factor and wine availability play large rolls too. Each leader has a strategy to align themselves and the promise with Quebec, but even with all that strategy at $225 dollars an hour, the liquid opinion of the distinct province is a craps shoot.

In the end the party that takes Quebec, will be the real winner of the next election if not in seats, in momentum.