2008 Quebec Federal Election
Confidence motions always stir the chance of an election. That chance is always a bit more magnified in a minority government as well. Welcome to the next two or three weeks of political jib-jab in the Canadian media.
We have both elements in place for some prime election speculation. The current minority has a budget (read: confidence motion) right around the corner. Party administration has gone into full on election mode, striking up more and new polling to be done and getting MPs in the mindset of shaking hands and taking names.
The interesting part of this situation is that we are about to decide, as a nation, if the country’s representatives have the confidence required to sustain parliament and a big part of that decision comes from a very narrowly focused group, the Bloc Québécois.
Now don’t get us wrong, we think that Gilles Duceppe has had some of the more memorable moments in interviews and on the floor of the house. He says what he thinks for the most part and other than a federal to provincial leap that failed last year, he has lived the good political life. What we find strange here is that the party with one province only in mind can lead the charge taking the nation to the polls.
Vote rich Quebec will be the focus of the next election. It holds the future for not only the Bloc Québécois, but the measurement of the Conservative’s storied progress in the province. These two factors will be pitted against each other consistently going back and forth. In the last election the Conservative lead a stunning victory over the Bloc (and Liberals), however the Bloc have since replaced the fire-tipped previous provincial leader André Boisclair and soared up more support since the whipping they took.
The barometer of the nation is clearly Quebec for the start and the end of any election. Some say a better barometer is one who has a 24/7 watch on the first barometer. Chantal Hebert is famous for her contributions to the CBC’s At Issue and as an expert on the ‘feelings’ of Quebec. Her perspective on a particular political party enjoying success in Quebec is that the federal Conservatives are closely aligned with the ADQ. And the ADQ has suffered some substantial losses in the last while, while allowing the PQ (or Bloc equivalent) to gather momentum. The boils down to a gain from the Bloc in the next election in Quebec.
Not all agree with her forecasts however. Jack Layton’s NDP were victorious in Outremont, the fabled Liberal riding the province in a by-election in 2007. Ask Jack and he’ll tell you, he’s the king of Kensington, if Kensington is somewhere in Quebec.
All this and still no solid picture has been painted here. That’s because Quebec is a fluid factor in any election calculations. Wind factor and wine availability play large rolls too. Each leader has a strategy to align themselves and the promise with Quebec, but even with all that strategy at $225 dollars an hour, the liquid opinion of the distinct province is a craps shoot.
In the end the party that takes Quebec, will be the real winner of the next election if not in seats, in momentum.